# selfdefeatingprophecy #securitytheater #preventionparadox #storyofmylife #kassandra

I love the term “self-defeating prophecy”. So many anecdotes I have to tell on that topic… In any case, sdp make a large part of reasons for why hackers and intruders are successful. 

“The prevention paradox was first formally described in 1981[1] by the epidemiologist Geoffrey Rose. The prevention paradox describes the seemingly contradictory situation where the majority of cases of a disease come from a population at low or moderate risk of that disease, and only a minority of cases come from the high risk population (of the same disease). This is because the number of people at high risk is small.

Especially during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019 and 2020, the term “prevention paradox” was also used to describe the apparent paradox of people questioning steps to prevent the spread of the pandemic because the prophesied spread did not occur.[2] This however is instead an example of a self-defeating prophecy.[3]”


#postcorona World in Wuhan and the Nonsense of Tracking Apps #securitytheater

Already a few days old, but still up-to-date about the facts. Tracking apps can’t replace adult behaviour and social distancing. Doesn’t matter if it’s done voluntarily or enforced by whoever that might be – state, reason or fear.

Post-lockdown life in Wuhan is a warning to the world | WIRED UK

“Coronavirus–related tech experiments in Europe are having their own issues. Researchers are torn over how to implement privacy protecting contact tracing. A report on one such app under development in Germany, found it could “only be installed on up-to-date Apple and Android phones, which will reduce its coverage to roughly 60-65 per cent of the general population,” says Sven Herpig, director for international cybersecurity policy at Berlin-based thinktank SNV. People may not want to be part of these infrastructures, or not have the means to join. If apps don’t work and scale, at some point we may have to decide to go non-digital.”

“None of the apps rolled out in China are replacements for traditional epidemic-fighting strategies such as human-led contact tracing – identifying those who fall ill, finding those with whom they have recently been in contact, and quarantining them. Despite the attention given to the health code, the country’s virus mitigation strategies are rooted in boots-on-the-ground management. Tech experiments have been layered over other epidemic-fighting infrastructure, so judging their utility is difficult. Often left out of the conversation is at what point tech applications become useful, and when they are no longer. “We don’t have proof that any of it really worked,” Herpig says.” 

“The health code is far from a silver bullet. Ultimately, what generates a green code is the commitment of individuals to stay at home for 14 days, and residential committees, which manage apartment compounds, to manage their designated inhabitants. But even as a pass to help with reopening, it has returned many to some level of normalcy.”

Remember #pre-corona threats?

Climate threats now dominate long-term risks, survey finds

“But he said making the transition to a greener, low-carbon and more sustainable economy was now “an existential challenge for everyone on this planet”. He pointed to the rapid disappearance of insect species around the world, including those that pollinate 75% of the world’s crops, as a result of climate change and other pressures. If insects and the pollination services they provide disappear, “that’s a catastrophic outcome” for food security and for business, Giger said. The breakdown of planetary systems has “true costs”, he added.”

(from January)

Varoufakis: “A glimmer of hope, capitalism has been suspensed”

“capitalism has been suspended. The last time capitalism was suspended in the west was during the second world war, with the advent of the war economy: a command economy that fixed prices. The war economy marked the transcendence of the standard capitalist model.”

“But what we see now is not so much the suspension of capitalism. The rules of capitalism may have been suspended – all those sacrosanct policies are gone, the neat separation of fiscal and monetary policy is gone, the idea that public debt is a bad thing is gone.”

‘There is a glimmer of hope’: economists on coronavirus and capitalism | World news | The Guardian


Challenge unlocked: R>1

Now that was fast. I thought it would take two weeks or more – is there any evidence that maybe Easter is connected to that? 


Honestly, I am concerned that Bluetooth-#Corona-Apps are merely #SecurityTheater.

Meine Nachbarn sitzen auf der Couch genau 2 Meter über mir. Wir sehen uns nicht, haben keinen Kontakt. Außer via Bluetooth. Regelmäßig. Sorry, das ist ManagementPorn und SecurityTheater. 

Ich lasse mich gerne überzeugen, aber ich stimme (wieder mal) dem Zeit-Artikel voll zu. 

Technologie in Corona-Zeiten: Eine Corona-App ersetzt nicht die Kontaktsperre | ZEIT ONLINE

Eine Corona-App darf dementsprechend auch niemals Voraussetzung für eine Lockerung der Kontaktbeschränkungen sein, wie es nun auch von einzelnen Politikerinnen und Politikern suggeriert wird. Das wäre hoch riskant und töricht. Denn ob so eine App tatsächlich hilft, wird man frühestens im Laufe des Sommers sagen können, wenn die ersten Ergebnisse ausgewertet werden können – und zu Beginn wahrscheinlich sogar nur für das technikfreundliche Berlin-Mitte. Seitennavigation STARTSEITE

Greenland again… Remember, there’s a climate catastrophe at the gates, too.

Now We Have to Worry About Sunny Skies Melting Greenland’s Ice Sheet

All told, the new findings show that Greenland surface mass balance—a metric that factors in snowfall coming in and melting ice going out—dropped a record 320 billion metric tons in 2019 compared to the 1981-to-2010 average. That’s even worse news when you consider the island prior to was already losing six times more ice than it was in 1980. All told, 96 percent of the ice sheet’s surface saw melt in 2019. And while heat certainly played a role, the fresh research shows that freaky clear skies amplified the impacts.

NZ’s Ardem is so right: Corona is a political crisis like never before

New Zealand’s fight against Covid-19 looks successful, but democracy is under threat | Bryce Edwards | Opinion | The Guardian

“The political system worked. But one of the ironies of putting the country into lockdown is we now have a system in which democracy is being debased. Civil liberties have been significantly curtailed, parliament adjourned, and the normal operations of the media are greatly restricted, meaning less public access to information.

That means the combination of civil society, media and the parliamentary system that normally keeps a check on government and authorities is now seriously weakened. This may be necessary given the dire threat posed by Covid-19, but it’s also dangerous for democracy and decision-making while the crisis is unresolved. “

Convincing People since 1994. Open Source. Security Theater. Leadership. Journalism.