Category: Global Change

On Helloween (!) 2008 (!!), I published a lonesome post on my then wordpress-hosted blog. With that, I created #FLOGW and #FLGW. The world looks different today – or not.

Feilner’s Law of Global Warning states:

“I believe that the climatic change driven by the green house effect will become faster and faster as we watch. Analog to Moore’s Law in processor technology, the measured climatic change will always happen faster than the most skeptical experts of the previous years had suspected. That’s my rule of climatic change, Feilner’s Law of Global Warming (FLGW).”

Here’s my collection.

Das Internet ist zu einem Marktplatz verkommen

“Die Anfänge des Internets wurden von optimistischen Visionen einer nicht kommerziellen Informationsgesellschaft begleitet, in der Wissen ein öffentliches Gut und das Internet ein herrschaftsfreier Raum1 ist, mit dem Zweck wissenschaftlichen Austauschs, Kommunikation, Vernetzung und Verbreitung von Informationen. In den 1990er Jahren wurde das Internet dann für die kommerzielle Nutzung geöffnet.

Knapp 30 Jahre später ist ein Großteil des Internets zum Marktplatz geworden: Onlineshops und kommerzielle Plattformen dienen dem Verkauf, die restlichen Webseiten als potenzielle Werbefläche. In diesen Räumen verbringen Menschen durchschnittlich drei Stunden pro Tag. Welche Folgen hat dies für ihr Konsumverhalten, Nachhaltigkeit und unser gesellschaftliches Wertesystem?”

Bits & Bäume: Verkauftes Internet

Decadal-scale shifts in soil hydraulic properties as induced by altered precipitation | Science Advances

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaau6635

Reality update: Decadal-scale shifts in soil hydraulic properties as induced by altered precipitation | Science Advances … :

“Abstract

Soil hydraulic properties influence the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration versus runoff, determine plant-available water, and constrain evapotranspiration. Although rapid changes in soil hydraulic properties from direct human disturbance are well documented, climate change may also induce such shifts on decadal time scales. Using soils from a 25-year precipitation manipulation experiment, we found that a 35% increase in water inputs substantially reduced infiltration rates and modestly increased water retention. We posit that these shifts were catalyzed by greater pore blockage by plant roots and reduced shrink-swell cycles. Given that precipitation regimes are expected to change at accelerating rates globally, shifts in soil structure could occur over broad regions more rapidly than expected and thus alter water storage and movement in numerous terrestrial ecosystems.“

Verkehrswende sonst Weltende

Die Kollegen von Sand im Getriebe machen das richtig gut:


Automanager haben Angst vor Umweltschützern – Wirtschaft – Süddeutsche.de … :

“Und was nun, nach den zwei Stunden? Was würden die Diskutanten auf die Schilder schreiben, sollten sie für ihre Sache auf die Straße gehen müssen? “Verkehrswende sonst Weltende”, sagt Luise Neumann-Cosel. “Wir wollen nachhaltige individuelle Mobilität”, sagt Mattes. Ein großes Schild.“

2/3 of New Zealands Rivers are Dangerously Polluted

So long, you nature reserve and natural beauty: 

‘Under serious threat’: New Zealand vows to clean up its polluted waterways | World news | The Guardian … :

“Two-thirds of country’s rivers are unswimmable with cow effluent and fertiliser run-off big contributing factors

(…)

Declining water quality has coincided with a boom in New Zealand’s dairy industry, the biggest exporter in the world. Cow effluent and fertiliser run-off are significant polluters of inland waterways, as are beef, sheep and deer farming.

Deforestation and the extensive clearing of native wetlands have also played a significant role in the degradation of water quality. According to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Science (Niwa), there is no doubt that the growth in pastoral farming, particularly dairy, is the main culprit for declining river water quality over the last 20 years.

But farmers say they’re being pushed out and their livelihoods overlooked. “It becomes very hard to continue economically farming animals or growing vegetables under a regime like this,” Federated Farmers environment and water spokesperson, Chris Allen, said.

According to a recent poll, water pollution is now New Zealanders’ number one concern: with 82% of respondents saying they wanted tougher protections for waterways, ranking it as a priority above the housing crisis, the rising cost of living and child poverty.“

Now that reminds me of Arnie and the US, where toxic waters are more a normal state by now.  

Arnold Schwarzenegger tweets to Scott Pruitt about water contamination – CNNPolitics … : 

“Washington (CNN)Arnold Schwarzenegger has a proposition for Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt following a Politico report about the administration’s handling of a study containing warnings about toxins in water supplies.:

“I’m a simple guy so I have a simple remedy when people like Pruitt ignore or hide pollution: if you don’t have a problem with Americans drinking contaminated drinking water, drink it yourself until you tap out or resign,” Schwarzenegger wrote.”

(…)

Citing newly disclosed emails, which have been obtained by CNN, Politico reported earlier this week that the study by the Health and Human Services’ Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, which would have given additional warnings about polluted US water supplies, raised concerns within the administration, with one aide warning it would cause a “public relations nightmare.”

Amazonasfeuer: 2050 ist heute.

War das der Lesch, der schrieb (sinngemäß): “Wir vergegenwärtigen nicht nur die Vergangenheit, sondern auch die Zukunft” …?

Amazonas-Experte warnt : „Nicht nur für Brasilien wird es das Ende sein“ – Politik – Tagesspiegel

Was sind denn die direkten Folgen der Brände? Wir haben lokale, regionale und natürlich globale Auswirkungen. Alle drei haben bereits ein sehr, sehr ernstes, ja katastrophales Niveau erreicht. Neueste, noch nicht veröffentlichte Studien zeigen, dass der Osten Amazoniens den Kipppunkt schon überschritten hat. Das Klima hat sich bereits so verändert, dass sich der Wald nicht mehr halten kann. Mein Bruder, der Meteorologe Carlos Nobre, hat diesen Schneeballeffekt bereits vor 30 Jahren vorausgesagt. Allerdings erst für die Zeit ab 2050. Aber dieser Prozess ist schon jetzt in vollem Gange. Es passiert alles viel früher als vorhergesagt.

Amazonas 4.0 … spannend…

Es liegt alles auf dem Tisch, es müsste nur endlich mal finanziert werden, um es in die Praxis umzusetzen. Stichwort Amazonas 4.0. Was meinen sie mit Amazonas 4.0? Das ist ein von meinen beiden Brüdern  Ismael und Carlos Nobre entwickeltes Nutzungskonzept. Sie haben ein System für die Ökonomie der Biodiversivität entwickelt. Eine Technologie inkorporiert in das biologische System Amazoniens. Man könnte so die agrarischen Produkte des Waldes nutzen, ohne den Wald zu zerstören. Dazu gehört etwa die kommerzielle Nutzung von Kakao und Cupuaçú. Dafür muss man keine Bäume fällen.

+2°C Can Equal +16m Sea Level Rise, +4°C has ended in +23,5m in Earth’s history

If you need something to frighten you, look at earth’s history and compare it to what we are doing now:

(from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1543-2, “Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth”

Abstract

Reconstructing the evolution of sea level during past warmer epochs such as the Pliocene, provides unique insight into the response of sea level and ice sheets to prolonged warming. While estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) during this time exist, they vary by several tens of metres, hindering the assessment of past and future ice sheet stability. Here we show that during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was on average 2–3 °C warmer than pre-industrial, the GMSL was 16.2 m (most likely, 5.6–19.2 m, 68% uncertainty range) higher than today. During the even warmer Pliocene Climatic Optimum (~4 °C warmer than pre-industrial), our results show that GMSL was 23.5 m above present (most probably, 9.0–26.7 m, 68% uncertainty range). We present six GMSL data points, ranging from 4.39 to 3.27 million years ago, that are based on phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from the western Mediterranean (Mallorca, Spain). This record is unique owing to its clear relationship to sea level, its reliable U–Pb ages and its long timespan, which allows us to quantify uncertainties on potential uplift. Our data indicate that ice sheets are very sensitive to warming and provide important calibration targets for future ice sheet models.

If you lack the imagination, here’s a global flooding map to play with:


Flood Direct calculation for +20m (=+4°C)

Thoughts on CO2-free Living and More – We Have to Become CO2-Negative

… by all means.

For many years, I have been living in a CO2-free home. It’s a rented apartment, but though. I buy energy, that is electricity and gas for hot water and heating from Greenpeace energy, who create gas from wind energy and are certified to have the best energy mix, all green.

I stopped doing larger trips with “cars” – the older ones will remember, that’s the dinosaurs of the mobile age – engines burning “fuel” aka dead animals and plants to bring animals (sometimes also plants) from A to B. A very stupid concept, but I had to commute to work a lot.

Since about 10 years I have been traveling by train and German railways is almost CO2-neutral on the long distances in its hyperfast ICE trains. At least they promise to. Five years ago I went completely green with the Bahn Card 100 – which costs a lot (4k€/y) but still less than a car and is CO2-neutral, well almost – and it includes virtually all German buses, trams and metros and similar public transports.

The rest of our energy-climate waste in form of CO2 like for the holiday trips by our old Volkswagen Bus (we almost completely stopped flying two years ago) we compensate through companies like Atmosfair.

After all, we are very likely to be CO2-neutral, probably CO2-negative, since I hope we slightly overcompensate. And of course, I would never use Uber or similar if I can avoid it. No way.

CO2-Negative is Possible. Now. 

However, we – you and me, everybody, have to become CO2-negative, because otherwise most of us are going to die. And that’s a simple thing, we used to call them facts before big corp came in and started to question sciences.

Don’t believe anybody who says CO2 negativity is not possible.

If you’re rich, pay for projects like Atmosfair and make people create such projects. Fast. Very Fast.

If you are poor, help with your work and word. Plant stuff, keep an eye for CO2 storing offers. Convince people, make your local community start local projects.

Don’t bother about the fanatics and disbelievers on the other side. Ain’t nobody got time for that.

CO2 Reduction and Neutrality is so Incredibly Cheap

And all of you try to reduce your footprint. There’s so much to look at. But it’s so incredible cheap to get neutral. Yes it is. And it’s simple, no matter what politics and media keep telling. Have a look at Atmosfair and similar websites, it’s easy. And to make that known to more people, I joined Extinction Rebellion recently. Join us, all you hopeless, frustrated people out there, come and feel the hope. We can make a change, but we need new actions. Not politics, not what we tried before – because WE failed. Yes WE did, from Greenpeace to Robin Wood (where I was in the early 90ies). Let’s roll.

I’ll have the Blade Runner Han Solo explain again, because he does it so well:

For all of you still interested in politics, here’s more from the BBC. Well worth a watch:

And here’s more scientific facts for the patient :

(if the video does not play, here’s the URL)

40% of Americans Would Rather Live in a Socialist Country… Says a Book for/from The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/aug/29/how-to-be-anticaptialist-in-21st-century-erik-olin-wright

“Until recently, very few people in the US and the UK were interested in debating these questions. Socialist movements were in deep retreat. The possibility of a world without capitalism seemed preposterous. In recent years, this possibility has started to look less preposterous. New leftwing momentum in both countries, propelled by popular upheavals and the campaigns of politicians such as Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn, has put socialist ideas back into circulation. Poll after poll demonstrates the rising popularity of the term. Forty per cent of Americans now say they would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one.“