Category Archives: Global Change

On Helloween (!) 2008 (!!), I published a lonesome post on my then wordpress-hosted blog. With that, I created #FLOGW and #FLGW. The world looks different today – or not.

Feilner’s Law of Global Warning states:

“I believe that the climatic change driven by the green house effect will become faster and faster as we watch. Analog to Moore’s Law in processor technology, the measured climatic change will always happen faster than the most skeptical experts of the previous years had suspected. That’s my rule of climatic change, Feilner’s Law of Global Warming (FLGW).”

Here’s my collection.

Wir haben ja noch Glück, aber das wird sich bald ändern…

#flgw

Globale Erwärmung: Die Welt des Menschen ist in Gefahr – Kultur – SZ.de

Ein Begriff wie “Jahrhundertflut” hat keinen Sinn mehr, wenn Houston innerhalb von fünf Jahren von fünf “500-Jahrstürmen” getroffen wird. Und dass die Verantwortlichen der Ölkatastrophe von Norilsk zu ihrer Verteidigung sagen, das mit dem Permafrost als Fundament für riesige Industriestädte habe doch 50 Jahre tadellos funktioniert, ist ein Bild für die Unfähigkeit, mit diesen Disruptionen umzugehen.

Immer mehr Hauskäufer wollen sich nicht für einen derart langen Zeitraum festlegen, umgekehrt dringen die Banken auf höhere Anzahlungen als früher. Der amerikanische Schriftsteller David Wallace-Wells merkte dazu an, jede Hypothek sei eine Wette auf die Zukunft. 30 Jahre galten bisher als überschaubar stabiler Zeitraum. Mittlerweile aber wird immer klarer, dass der Klimawandel keine sanfte Sache ist, sondern diskontinuierlich, in Sprüngen vonstatten geht. Das Internetportal Climate Central schätzt, dass 500 000 amerikanische Häuser auf Land stehen, das in 30 Jahren zumindest einmal pro Jahr überschwemmt werden wird.

Globale Lösungen braucht es. Amerikas Niedergang zeigt das deutlich.

Ich bin schon gespannt, welche Weltmächte in der Klimakrise stürzen – die ist um einiges schlimmer als Corona. Das ist da nur der Anfang. #flogw

Corona-Neuinfektionen steigen in den USA: Die amerikanische Katastrophe – DER SPIEGEL

“Ein weltweiter Führungsanspruch lässt sich nicht allein aus militärischer oder ökonomischer Stärke ableiten. Es kommt auch darauf an, wie eine Weltmacht dabei mithilft, globale Probleme wie das Coronavirus zu bekämpfen. Die USA haben hier unter Donald Trump auf der ganzen Linie versagt.”

Is tourism dead after Corona? And would that be good for the climate?

The answer seems: Yes, it would be good, but it’s not likely. Sad somehow. 

The end of tourism? | Travel | The Guardian

“Tourism is significantly more carbon-intensive than other potential areas of economic development,” reported a recent study in the journal Nature Climate Change. Between 2009 and 2013, the industry’s global carbon footprint grew to about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the majority generated by air travel. “The rapid increase in tourism demand,” the study went on, “is effectively outstripping the decarbonisation of tourism-related technology”.

Yes, #toldyouso. The US _is_ Becoming a Banana Republic.

Is America Becoming a Banana Republic? | The New Yorker

“Over the past week, however, the President’s response to the escalating protests over the killing of George Floyd has deepened the debate about what is happening to America. The House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi—the third most powerful politician in the the land—described the experience of her daughter, a filmmaker and journalist, when men in fatigues used chemical agents and body armor to force her fellow peaceful protesters aside so Trump could walk to St. John’s Church, on Monday night, for a fleeting photo op where he waved the Bible. On Wednesday, Pelosi bluntly asked, on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” “What is this, a banana republic?”

The answer is no longer facile. Later that day, James Mattis, the former Defense Secretary, issued a scathing rebuke of President Trump, his former boss. Mattis described being “angry and appalled” at the use of the U.S. military against the American people and the description of American cities by his successor at the Pentagon, Mark Esper, as “battlespace” to be dominated. ”When I joined the military, some fifty years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside,” he said, in a statement to The Atlantic.”

We need to help the US: The Guardian sees 54M hungry

I’ve been writing on this #civilwar2 or #cwii topic for ten years, now it seems to start. Hey, fellow citizens of the civilzed wirld, here is a people in need. We need to help. They need food and more. Because you cannot eat guns and hate and religion.

“‘People are going to go hungry’: pandemic effects could leave 54m Americans without food | World news”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/people-are-going-to-go-hungry-pandemic-effects-could-leave-54m-americans-without-food

#climatecatastrophy #globalchange nach #corona #covid-19? A good read.

Tagesspiegel has a good but German article for all of us who are concerned about global change. 

Die Party ist vorbei: Was wir aus der Coronakrise für den Klimawandel lernen sollten – Kultur – Tagesspiegel

“Hier bedarf es der Bereitschaft, sinnvolle Verzichtsleistungen einzubringen, nicht erzwungenermaßen, sondern freiwillig und guten Mutes, aus der schlichten Einsicht heraus, dass wir damit nichts weniger tun als die Welt zu retten. Besitzt der Mensch dafür natürliche, ihm anthropologisch mitgegebene Anlagen, die sich, wenn das Wohl des Ganzen auf dem Spiel steht, aktivieren lassen?”

#postcorona World in Wuhan and the Nonsense of Tracking Apps #securitytheater

Already a few days old, but still up-to-date about the facts. Tracking apps can’t replace adult behaviour and social distancing. Doesn’t matter if it’s done voluntarily or enforced by whoever that might be – state, reason or fear.

Post-lockdown life in Wuhan is a warning to the world | WIRED UK

“Coronavirus–related tech experiments in Europe are having their own issues. Researchers are torn over how to implement privacy protecting contact tracing. A report on one such app under development in Germany, found it could “only be installed on up-to-date Apple and Android phones, which will reduce its coverage to roughly 60-65 per cent of the general population,” says Sven Herpig, director for international cybersecurity policy at Berlin-based thinktank SNV. People may not want to be part of these infrastructures, or not have the means to join. If apps don’t work and scale, at some point we may have to decide to go non-digital.”

“None of the apps rolled out in China are replacements for traditional epidemic-fighting strategies such as human-led contact tracing – identifying those who fall ill, finding those with whom they have recently been in contact, and quarantining them. Despite the attention given to the health code, the country’s virus mitigation strategies are rooted in boots-on-the-ground management. Tech experiments have been layered over other epidemic-fighting infrastructure, so judging their utility is difficult. Often left out of the conversation is at what point tech applications become useful, and when they are no longer. “We don’t have proof that any of it really worked,” Herpig says.” 

“The health code is far from a silver bullet. Ultimately, what generates a green code is the commitment of individuals to stay at home for 14 days, and residential committees, which manage apartment compounds, to manage their designated inhabitants. But even as a pass to help with reopening, it has returned many to some level of normalcy.”

Remember #pre-corona threats?

Climate threats now dominate long-term risks, survey finds

“But he said making the transition to a greener, low-carbon and more sustainable economy was now “an existential challenge for everyone on this planet”. He pointed to the rapid disappearance of insect species around the world, including those that pollinate 75% of the world’s crops, as a result of climate change and other pressures. If insects and the pollination services they provide disappear, “that’s a catastrophic outcome” for food security and for business, Giger said. The breakdown of planetary systems has “true costs”, he added.”

(from January)

Greenland again… Remember, there’s a climate catastrophe at the gates, too.

Now We Have to Worry About Sunny Skies Melting Greenland’s Ice Sheet

All told, the new findings show that Greenland surface mass balance—a metric that factors in snowfall coming in and melting ice going out—dropped a record 320 billion metric tons in 2019 compared to the 1981-to-2010 average. That’s even worse news when you consider the island prior to was already losing six times more ice than it was in 1980. All told, 96 percent of the ice sheet’s surface saw melt in 2019. And while heat certainly played a role, the fresh research shows that freaky clear skies amplified the impacts.

NZ’s Ardem is so right: Corona is a political crisis like never before

New Zealand’s fight against Covid-19 looks successful, but democracy is under threat | Bryce Edwards | Opinion | The Guardian

“The political system worked. But one of the ironies of putting the country into lockdown is we now have a system in which democracy is being debased. Civil liberties have been significantly curtailed, parliament adjourned, and the normal operations of the media are greatly restricted, meaning less public access to information.

That means the combination of civil society, media and the parliamentary system that normally keeps a check on government and authorities is now seriously weakened. This may be necessary given the dire threat posed by Covid-19, but it’s also dangerous for democracy and decision-making while the crisis is unresolved. “

Czernobyl on fire? Pripyat is….

Ukraine: wildfires draw dangerously close to Chernobyl site | Environment | The Guardian

The tour operator, Yaroslav Yemelianenko, wrote that the fire had reached the abandoned city of Pripyat and was just 2km (1.24 miles) away from the nuclear power plant and the Pidlisny radioactive waste disposal site. “The situation is critical. The zone is burning,” he wrote in a Facebook post accompanied by a video of the blaze. Yemelianenko, a member of a public advisory board to Ukraine’s emergency service, also accused the government of covering up the severity of the fires.

We should call it American Racism #Corona Virus – ARC

That’s so bad, these numbers. I sincerely hope this is a wake up call to this great country. 

Translating from the German article: “In Chicago more than half of the infected and 72% of the dead are African Americans. ‘Breathtaking’ is what Major Lori Lightfoot calls this, and a ‘call to action’.”

Coronavirus in den USA: Afroamerikaner sind härter betroffen – DER SPIEGEL

In Chicago sind sogar mehr als die Hälfte der Kranken und 72 Prozent der Toten schwarz. “Diese Zahlen verschlagen einem den Atem”, sagte Bürgermeisterin Lori Lightfoot am Montag. “Dies ist ein Aufruf zum Handeln.”

Here’s a good read from Politico on the problem’s nature:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/06/coronavirus-demographics-170353