Reality update: The automotive revolution is speeding up | McKinsey … :
“For more than two years, the industry has been talking about the four disruptive trends changing the rules in the mobility sector: autonomous driving, shared mobility, connectivity, and electrification. A McKinsey report from January 2016 integrated the impact of these trends into a single picture for the first time. Today, we can offer a perspective on three questions that are a top priority: What is the speed of change? What do the new value pools look like? What is required to succeed in the future? This article addresses the first two questions; the third question will be covered in a forthcoming piece (for more on how we developed our perspective, see sidebar “How we derive insights”).”
“Considering our base case, by 2030, about 20 percent of value generated from classic vehicle sales might shift toward new technologies, such as xEV powertrains or autonomous-vehicle software and components. But more than 60 percent of revenue from disruptive business models could still be carried by traditional elements, such as the shared vehicle itself or fleet operations”
“While same-day delivery still seems like a novelty to many, automotive, e-commerce, and logistics players are already working on solutions that use data from fully connected vehicles to have packages delivered to car trunks, regardless of where the driver is.”
“The increasing momentum of all disruptive trends, the shifts in value pools and corresponding capabilities, and the growing need for more granular perspectives on consumers requires we rethink our view of the automotive industry. The new personal-mobility landscape that is emerging is much broader than the traditional automotive industry; it is extending to include, among many others, tech players and new entrants from other industries such as software and utilities. Whether incumbents or challengers, all players will find themselves part of an increasingly diverse playing field (Exhibit 5).“