Author: mfeilner

+2°C Can Equal +16m Sea Level Rise, +4°C has ended in +23,5m in Earth’s history

If you need something to frighten you, look at earth’s history and compare it to what we are doing now:

(from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1543-2, “Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth”

Abstract

Reconstructing the evolution of sea level during past warmer epochs such as the Pliocene, provides unique insight into the response of sea level and ice sheets to prolonged warming. While estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) during this time exist, they vary by several tens of metres, hindering the assessment of past and future ice sheet stability. Here we show that during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was on average 2–3 °C warmer than pre-industrial, the GMSL was 16.2 m (most likely, 5.6–19.2 m, 68% uncertainty range) higher than today. During the even warmer Pliocene Climatic Optimum (~4 °C warmer than pre-industrial), our results show that GMSL was 23.5 m above present (most probably, 9.0–26.7 m, 68% uncertainty range). We present six GMSL data points, ranging from 4.39 to 3.27 million years ago, that are based on phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from the western Mediterranean (Mallorca, Spain). This record is unique owing to its clear relationship to sea level, its reliable U–Pb ages and its long timespan, which allows us to quantify uncertainties on potential uplift. Our data indicate that ice sheets are very sensitive to warming and provide important calibration targets for future ice sheet models.

If you lack the imagination, here’s a global flooding map to play with:


Flood Direct calculation for +20m (=+4°C)

Thoughts on CO2-free Living and More – We Have to Become CO2-Negative

… by all means.

For many years, I have been living in a CO2-free home. It’s a rented apartment, but though. I buy energy, that is electricity and gas for hot water and heating from Greenpeace energy, who create gas from wind energy and are certified to have the best energy mix, all green.

I stopped doing larger trips with “cars” – the older ones will remember, that’s the dinosaurs of the mobile age – engines burning “fuel” aka dead animals and plants to bring animals (sometimes also plants) from A to B. A very stupid concept, but I had to commute to work a lot.

Since about 10 years I have been traveling by train and German railways is almost CO2-neutral on the long distances in its hyperfast ICE trains. At least they promise to. Five years ago I went completely green with the Bahn Card 100 – which costs a lot (4k€/y) but still less than a car and is CO2-neutral, well almost – and it includes virtually all German buses, trams and metros and similar public transports.

The rest of our energy-climate waste in form of CO2 like for the holiday trips by our old Volkswagen Bus (we almost completely stopped flying two years ago) we compensate through companies like Atmosfair.

After all, we are very likely to be CO2-neutral, probably CO2-negative, since I hope we slightly overcompensate. And of course, I would never use Uber or similar if I can avoid it. No way.

CO2-Negative is Possible. Now. 

However, we – you and me, everybody, have to become CO2-negative, because otherwise most of us are going to die. And that’s a simple thing, we used to call them facts before big corp came in and started to question sciences.

Don’t believe anybody who says CO2 negativity is not possible.

If you’re rich, pay for projects like Atmosfair and make people create such projects. Fast. Very Fast.

If you are poor, help with your work and word. Plant stuff, keep an eye for CO2 storing offers. Convince people, make your local community start local projects.

Don’t bother about the fanatics and disbelievers on the other side. Ain’t nobody got time for that.

CO2 Reduction and Neutrality is so Incredibly Cheap

And all of you try to reduce your footprint. There’s so much to look at. But it’s so incredible cheap to get neutral. Yes it is. And it’s simple, no matter what politics and media keep telling. Have a look at Atmosfair and similar websites, it’s easy. And to make that known to more people, I joined Extinction Rebellion recently. Join us, all you hopeless, frustrated people out there, come and feel the hope. We can make a change, but we need new actions. Not politics, not what we tried before – because WE failed. Yes WE did, from Greenpeace to Robin Wood (where I was in the early 90ies). Let’s roll.

I’ll have the Blade Runner Han Solo explain again, because he does it so well:

For all of you still interested in politics, here’s more from the BBC. Well worth a watch:

And here’s more scientific facts for the patient :

(if the video does not play, here’s the URL)

Hacked: Whatsapp, Telegram, iMessage on iPhones – by Simple Website Visits

Nehmt Apple, das ist sicher, sagten sie, die der Religion noch anheim fielen. Unfassbar, wie lange sich der Irrglaube hielt. 

Project Zero: A very deep dive into iOS Exploit chains found in the wild

“The implant has access to all the database files (on the victim’s phone) used by popular end-to-end encryption apps like Whatsapp, Telegram and iMessage. We can see here screenshots of the apps on the left, and on the right the contents of the database files stolen by the implant which contain the unencrypted, plain-text of the messages sent and received using the apps:”

Google deckt riesige iPhone-Hackerkampagne auf – SPIEGEL ONLINE

“Anfang des Jahres, heißt es in einem Blogpost von Project Zero, habe Googles Threat Analysis Group (TAG) eine “kleine Sammlung gehackter Websites” entdeckt, die mehr als zwei Jahre lang Spionagesoftware auf iPhones verbreitet hatten, schätzungsweise Tausende Male pro Woche. Um infiziert zu werden, reichte es, wenn die Opfer eine der manipulierten Websites mit ihrem Apple-Handy aufriefen. Man war selbst dann nicht geschützt, wenn man die zum jeweiligen Zeitpunkt aktuelle Version von iOS 10, 11 oder 12 installiert hatte. Fünf verschiedene, jeweils komplette und einzigartige Exploit-Ketten seien im Laufe der Zeit auf den Websites zum Einsatz gekommen, schreibt Ian Beer von Project Zero. Im Prinzip bedeutet das: Fünffacher Super-GAU für iPhone-Besitzer – und Apple.”

(…)

“Theoretisch hätte die jahrelange Kampagne auch ein Versuch der politischen, militärischen oder Wirtschaftsspionage sein können. Es ist erstens unklar, ob nur die fünf von Google entdeckten Websites die Schadsoftware verbreiteten, oder auch andere Seiten. Zweitens verrät Project Zero nicht, um welche Websites es sich handelte. Falls sie sie an ein bestimmtes Publikum gerichtet haben, zum Beispiel an Soldaten, spräche das eher für zwar recht breit gestreute, inhaltlich aber gezielte Kampagne.”

(…)

“Für Apple und seine Kunden ist die Entdeckung der zweite klare Hinweis von Project Zero innerhalb kurzer Zeit, dass auch die vermeintlich so sicheren Produkte aus Cupertino alles andere als unverwundbar sind.”

40% of Americans Would Rather Live in a Socialist Country… Says a Book for/from The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/aug/29/how-to-be-anticaptialist-in-21st-century-erik-olin-wright

“Until recently, very few people in the US and the UK were interested in debating these questions. Socialist movements were in deep retreat. The possibility of a world without capitalism seemed preposterous. In recent years, this possibility has started to look less preposterous. New leftwing momentum in both countries, propelled by popular upheavals and the campaigns of politicians such as Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn, has put socialist ideas back into circulation. Poll after poll demonstrates the rising popularity of the term. Forty per cent of Americans now say they would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one.“

 

There’s One Wrong Statistic Everyone’s Sharing About The Devastating Amazon Fires

“Don’t hold your breath

Even though plant photosynthesis is ultimately responsible for breathable oxygen, only a vanishingly tiny fraction of that plant growth actually adds to the store of oxygen in the air. Even if all organic matter on Earth were burned at once, less than 1 percent of the world’s oxygen would be consumed”

https://www.sciencealert.com/there-s-one-wrong-statistic-everyone-s-sharing-about-the-devastating-amazon-fires

Natural born killers 25 years later. Stone knew.

 Natural Born Killers at 25: the problem with Oliver Stone’s hit film | Film | The Guardian … :

“America is a sick place, Stone suggests, with maniacs like Mickey and Mallory as the symptom of illness. And the perverse affliction of homicidal celebrity hasn’t gone away in the quarter-century since Stone mounted his demented satire. The phenomenon of mass shootings, a frightening new concept when the “trenchcoat mafia” at Columbine first sparked an ongoing debate in 1999, is now common enough that we can’t keep track of them all. We’ve fully given up on the “don’t print the killer’s name” principle; Rolling Stone devoted the July 2013 cover to a Jim Morrison-esque portrait of Boston bombing culprit Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, and caused an outcry echoing Stone’s sentiments from a couple decades earlier. On paper, his vision should seem more prescient now than ever.“

Bitter Lake by Adam Curtis … another recommendation for a good documentary!

 Bitter Lake (2015) | Watch Free Documentaries Online … :

“Bitter Lake by Adam Curtis advocates a position that Western governments and media have simplified the story of militant Islam down to an argument of good versus evil. It is an examination of why the explanations offered to the Western public are increasingly unconvincing and hollow. The story focuses on Afghanistan, but the title Bitter Lake refers to the Great Bitter Lake in Egypt, through which the Suez Canal flows. In 1945, President Franklin D. Roosevelt of the United States and King Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia came to an agreement while aboard a ship in the Great Bitter Lake. The film outlines the alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and how it has created a feedback loop that may be behind the various militant Islamic forces since the 1970s. It makes extensive use of archive footage and newsreels to portray historical facts and events in a broader context.“

Weite Landstriche unbewohnbar in 80 Jahren…

Menschliche Klimaanlage am Limit: Mehr Schwitzen wird vielerorts bald nicht mehr helfen – Wissen – Tagesspiegel … :

“Klimawandel: In 80 Jahren könnten ganze Landstriche unbewohnbar werden Tod durch Hitzschlag in feuchter Hitze: Wie die beiden Wissenschaftler warnten, könnte diese bis jetzt noch kaum beachtete Folge des Klimawandels spätestens gegen Ende des Jahrhunderts ganze Landstriche unbewohnbar machen – falls die Temperaturen wie bisher weiter steigen.“

3 Menschheitsfallen

Reality update: Klima und Waldbrände: 3 Menschheitsfallen – und wie wir ihnen entkommen – SPIEGEL ONLINE … :

“In der Psychologie spricht man von drei Arten von Fallen, die Menschen in solche selbstzerstörerischen Handlungsweisen führen:

“Soziale Fallen”: Die anderen fischen mit Dynamit – das macht zwar die Korallenriffe kaputt und damit bald auch die Fischbestände, von denen wir alle abhängen. Aber bis dahin fangen meine Konkurrenten viel mehr Fische. Warum sollte ich dann nicht auch mit Dynamit fischen, solange es noch geht?

“Zeitliche Fallen”: Es mag ja sein, dass mein Verhalten irgendwann in der Zukunft negative Konsequenzen haben wird, aber im Moment bringt es mir Vorteile – billige Energie zum Beispiel, bequemen Transport. Der Schaden scheint in ferner Zukunft zu liegen, also ignorieren wir ihn.

“Räumliche Fallen”: Es mag ja sein, dass es für die Einwohner von Kiribati und Mikronesien irgendwann ungemütlich wird, wenn das Wasser weiter steigt, aber was geht das mich an? Mein Haus steht auf einem Hügel, weit weg vom Meer.”

“

Hypernormalisation: Transnistria

Transnistrian Time-Slip – The New York Times … :

“And so, the rebellion that established the independence of Transnistria [7] was not motivated by Russian nationalism, but by Soviet nostalgia — or, rather, by the inability to imagine a future other than a communist one. For many years after independence, Transnistria tried to re-establish that ineffective mainstay of communism, so eagerly rejected elsewhere: a centrally planned economy.”

If you don’t know what Hypernormalisation means, watch this: